In two months, an undetermined number of Idaho voters will troop to the polls to choose party nominees for Congress, the Idaho Legislature and a host of county positions.

This May 19 primary will be unlike any recent Idaho campaign in that the coronavirus will shape the electorate and the very nature of the campaign.

In the next 60 days Idaho is likely to see more and more virus cases. Our colleges and universities will have moved to teaching online. Public and private schools may be closed. The toll on business activity will be significant, with signs of a recession spreading. Sporting and other public events will be cancelled. By May, some Idahoans, unfortunately, will likely have died.

Hopefully the great toilet paper shortage will be over ...

The question facing every Idaho candidate is how to you forge a win when the public is heavily fixated on something else?

The electorate itself will be shaped by the coronavirus outbreak. Turnout for a primary election is usually modest when the governor is not on the ballot, in the mid-teens to mid-twenties. But, I think I can safely predict that this year’s contest should be even lower. The outbreak will deter Idahoans from going to the polls on Election Day and trooping to the election office for early voting. Absentee ballots should be up. Campaigns that focus on absentees are likely to be rewarded.

Another challenge will be what themes do Idaho candidates focus on?

My guess is that most of the public will still care about the big issues like property taxes, education and growth. Presumably, some candidates will craft a “stomp out coronavirus” platform.

But, what about more divisive issues like guns, treatment of those who are transgender, or individual voting records? My guess is that it will be far more difficult to get traction with points of contrast or negative hits given the public’s focus on the virus.

Here are some of the challenges I see with the actual mechanics of running a campaign ...

First, door-to-door campaigning will be out. A stranger on the doorstep in the midst of contagion is not a way to bond.

Second, distributing yard signs will be far tougher.

Third, social media will probably be used extensively. The difficulty is getting the public to actually pay attention to campaign messages. Social media usage will likely skyrocket as people become more and more isolated, but the focus will be on news, sharing various unfounded claims, and connecting with friends. Local politics is likely to be down the list of priorities. Also, Facebook has made targeted advertising tougher, complicating things further.

Fourth, paid media will probably be king. Direct mail. Newspaper. Web advertising. Radio and such.

That brings me to a point that I suspect few have focused on yet. I think fundraising will be tougher in an era where face-to-face communication will be sparser. Usually a direct pitch is the most effective way of shaking the money tree. Many don’t like to open their wallet unless they have a personal connection with the candidate. I expect candidates to spend time on the phone and other less direct methods to raise funds. But, I can see the return being less.

The role of political action committees will be enhanced. I expect significant independent expenditures.

Overall, these factors will restrict campaigns sharply. The winning efforts will be those that figure out how to navigate the coronavirus-created environment.

Steve Taggart is an Idaho Falls attorney specializing in bankruptcy with considerable real estate experience. He was previously a political consultant and ran a congressional office in Washington, D.C.