Teasing out the factors that led a campaign to victory is complicated, but in Idaho’s Republican gubernatorial primary, at least two factors played a significant role: religion and geography.

Geography and religious affiliation are closely related in the Gem State. Mormons are the largest religious group in all counties in eastern Idaho, and all counties except Jerome in central Idaho. And six of the eight counties where Evangelicals are the largest group are in northern Idaho. That makes it difficult to say whether religion or geography is the driving factor.

But a Post Register analysis of county level election results and data from the Association of Religion Data Archives shows clear patterns related to both factors in Tuesday’s primary election results. Both in terms of religious affiliation and geography, Lt. Gov. Brad Little emerged victorious because he was able to gain a broad base of support that cut across divisions, while both of his major opponents had relatively concentrated pockets of support.

Religion

Religious affiliation appeared to play an important role in the governor’s race, particularly on the Republican side. While Little was able to gain support that cut across religious divides, both Congressman Raúl Labrador and Boise developer Tommy Ahlquist had support that was closely related to religious affiliation.

Two of the three candidates, Ahlquist and Labrador, are Mormons, while Little is an Episcopalian. None are Evangelical.

Republican primary voters didn’t necessarily group behind candidates of the same religion, but there were clear patterns in which counties broke for the various candidates, based on those counties’ religious makeup.

Support for Little was fairly broad-based and crossed religious lines. In Bannock County, where he had his poorest showing, Little still picked up almost 28 percent of the vote. Labrador fell below that mark in 21 of Idaho’s 44 counties, Ahlquist in 25.

Little picked up 53 percent of the vote in Gem County and about 45 percent in Jerome County, each of which is about one-third Catholic. He picked up 49 percent support in Butte County, which is about 57 percent Mormon. And he picked up 51 percent in Valley County, where about 12 percent of the population is Evangelical.

By contrast, support for Labrador was strongest in areas with large numbers of Evangelical voters, and support for Ahlquist was concentrated in areas with large Mormon populations.

Mormons are the largest religious group in all 10 of the counties where Ahlquist was the top finisher. And all of Ahlquist’s nine first-place finishes came in the 15 Idaho counties with the highest percentage of LDS residents. The other six were carried by Little.

Ahlquist carried Madison County — which, because of the way statistics on religious affiliation are collected, is reported to be more than 100 percent Mormon — with 39 percent support. In Franklin County, which is approximately 90 percent Mormon, he won 40 percent.

Labrador, himself a Mormon, didn’t finish first in any county where Mormons are the largest religious group, with the exception of Canyon County, where about 16 percent of the population belongs to the LDS Church.

Labrador’s support was most heavily concentrated in areas with large Evangelical populations. He won 48 percent support in Benewah County, which is about a third Catholic, but is also about 16 percent Evangelical. And he had his second-best performance in Kootenai County, which has by far the state’s highest concentration of Evangelicals at about 44 percent.

Five of the six counties in which Labrador was the first-place finisher were in the top 15 counties for concentration of Evangelicals (the other, Idaho County, is No. 16). Little carried a majority in the remainder.

Geography

A similar pattern emerges when analyzing the geographical distribution of support for the three candidates. Little, the victor, was able to build a broad base of support throughout the state, while both Labrador and Ahlquist appeared to build pockets of support centered in specific geographical regions.

Little did especially well in central and western Idaho, but he picked up significant numbers of counties in northern and eastern Idaho as well. He turned in his poorest showing in eastern Idaho overall.

Little won five of the 10 counties in northern Idaho, nine of the 10 counties in western Idaho, 10 of the 11 counties in central Idaho, and five of the 13 counties in eastern Idaho.

The counties where Labrador won majority support are almost exclusively in the panhandle — Bonner, Boundary, Benewah, Kootenai and Idaho counties. He was able to pick up a single county in western Idaho — Canyon County.

All of Ahlquist’s victories came in eastern Idaho — Bonneville, Madison, Jefferson, Bingham, Teton, Bannock, Power and Franklin Counties.