We know what Idaho voters - in the aggregate - thought of Donald Trump in the last three presidential elections: They backed him 66.9 percent in 2024, 63.8 percent in 2020 and 59.2 percent in 2016.
But how does that compare to now, as the midterm elections approach? And - less discussed - does his level of approval vary around the state?
Some clues emerge in an absorbing report on the polling analysis site Strength in Numbers, led by G. Elliot Morris (whose Substack is well worth a review), and drawing on an unusually large and detailed data set.
It gives Trump a national support average of 38.2 percent, which, if anything, is a bit higher than some others do. Like several other recent studies, it shows Idaho at 50.6 percent, ranked third nationally in Trump support, behind only West Virginia (54.3 percent) and Oklahoma (53 percent). It is immediately ahead of South Dakota (also 50.6 percent) and Wyoming (50.5 percent).
But how about within Idaho? Which parts of Idaho support Trump more or less?
The Strength in Numbers data isn’t extensive or precise enough for county breakdowns, but it does split the state into a dozen PUMAS - Census Public Use Microdata Areas, each with around 100,000 adults. They split up Idaho in ways most Idahoans won’t immediately recognize, but generally cohere.
Here are those areas, from strongest Trump support to weakest.
Central Idaho, Lewiston area south to Boise County and east to Lemi and Clark counties - 59.2 percent. This is geographically the largest area, the most rural, with people spread farthest apart.
The Coeur d’Alene, Post Falls and Hayden area - 57.5. Far smaller in square mileage, but dominated by the new and fast-growing suburbs in western Kootenai County.
Outlying southwest, from Washington, Payette and Gem to northern Canyon County- 56.1 percent. Most of the people here would be living in fast-growing Canyon, but parts of the other counties have a bedroom community feel.
Twin Falls and Cassia counties - 54.8 percent. A mix of growing industrial areas and quieter farm communities.
Southern Canyon and Owyhee counties - 54.1 percent. Most of the area is deeply rural, but most of the people live in new-growth Nampa and Caldwell. Again, lots of newcomers here.
Panhandle south through Latah County, except the Coeur d’Alene, Post Falls and Hayden area - 53.7 percent. Were you expecting a higher Trump percentage here? I was. But much of this is stable rural country with far less influx than the Kootenai suburbs. (Also, it includes the University of Idaho.)
Bingham (except Fort Hall), Madison, Fremont, Jefferson and Teton counties - 53.2 percent. This is very conservative, Republican territory, but it seems less Trump-enthusiastic than some other areas.
Bonneville County- 52.2 percent. The urban center of Idaho Falls may be driving down the numbers here.
Eastern Canyon County (Nampa) and western Meridian - 51.6 percent. Another high-growth area like western Kootenai or southern Canyon, but seemingly less Trump-centric. Could the closeness to Boise city be a factor?
Southeast Idaho, including Pocatello, Power and Bear Lake counties and Fort Hall area - 50.9 percent. Pocatello, which even now is politically marginal, may dampen the Trump numbers a little, but the very rural areas around it aren’t pushing back as much as expected with higher figures.
Northern Magic Valley, from Elmore to Blaine to Jerome to Minidoka counties - 49 percent. True, the Wood River Valley is here, but that offers only a slice of Democratic countering to the other counties, which all are strongly Republican. Support this low is notable.
Eastern Meridian and western Boise - 46.1 percent. Boise is blue, and Meridian has been red; the boundaries of this area may be just enough for Boise to outweigh in the balance.
Most of Boise, southern Ada through Kuna - 34.7 percent. Trump is about as popular in central Boise as you might expect.
North and west Boise and Garden City - 33.1 percent. Here too.
A few thoughts.
The dividing lines in Trump support aren’t entirely where you’d expect. Sure, Boise’s opposition is no surprise, since it has been a blue city for a couple of decades and more. There are some indications here too, maybe, of a little softening of support in the Meridian area - and in the northern Magic Valley.
On the other side, the most rural areas in Idaho generally stick with Trump the most. The massive central Idaho area from Lewiston to Cascade and east across to the Montana line is the Trumpiest part of Idaho. But it’s also true that the newest and fastest-growing suburbs are right behind. Heavy Trump support shows up in the most rural areas and in the fastest-growing suburbs.
It could be that the fault lines in Idaho politics are changing a little.
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