Our elections are by “secret ballot.” No one knows, for sure, how you vote. But it is possible in primaries to analyze trends, compare voting in contested and non-contested races, and see if it is likely your Party’s nominee may have been selected by the “other Party.”
It is called “crossover voting.” With a number of CINOs (conservatives-in-name-only) losing in this year’s GOP primary, claims of Democrats raiding and electing secret communists abound. One candidate for Party leadership, former Boise State Senator Branden Durst, has made it the centerpiece of his campaign.
But here is the truth: crossover voting occurs, but it doesn’t uniformly elect moderates. In fact, political scientists who study the issue believe the trend is in the other direction. There is increasing evidence that crossover occurs more for the purpose of “mischief” (harming the other party) than for “insurance” (getting a Republican who agrees with Democrats).
There are three drivers for crossover, and I just mentioned two of them: mischief and insurance. The third is genuine preference. Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump are examples of candidates with genuine crossover appeal. Their blue-collar support has been measurable and helped them win, especially in America’s Midwest.
The culture warriors seeking to “combat” crossover voting usually don’t count “genuine preference.” These are voters who express honest views and legitimately want their preferred candidate to win over the other party’s nominee. Their “crossing over” often spills into a party gaining momentum and seeing success up and down the ticket.
“Insurance” is the least common form of crossover, and it only occurs where Democrats have absolutely nothing happening on their own primary ballot. That situation generally produces extremely low Democrat turnout. Of the Democrats who do vote in the primary, the number asking for the Republican ballot so they can pick “the least objectionable Republican” is extremely low (in the range of around 0.1%).
That leaves “mischief.” The most well-known example of mischievous crossover voting occurred in 2008 when a late-season primary push sought to elevate Hillary Clinton in her contest against Barack Obama. Radio talk show luminary Rush Limbaugh called it “Operation Chaos” and listed reasons that Republican should raid the Democrat primary and vote for Hillary:
One — Obama sewing up the nomination early meant tens of millions in campaign cash would be redirected against Republicans. An extended primary drained the Democrat’s bank.
Two — Obama was mostly unknown. Most of the public already either loved or hated Hillary and her high negatives among conservatives would help boost Republican turnout.
Three — Republican strategists relished opening a schism among Democrats, the party of “identity politics,” pitting a black man from Chicago over a white woman from New York. Sean Hannity needled Democrats for having to pick “which repressed minority do we dump.”
Not once did Limbaugh or Hannity give the argument that “crossing over is needed to help Republican Candidate John McCain.” Mischief is done to hurt a party and an entire ticket.
We saw this in the Legislative District 35 race between incumbent Mike Veile and returning challenger “Mad Chad” Christensen. In counties with no local Democrat contests, some registered as Republicans, bragging they relished forcing “holier-than-thou Mormons” to vote for “Mad Chad” just because he has the “R” behind his name.
The mischief here is to elevate flawed and potentially embarrassing Republican nominees in an effort to break Idaho from its Republican habit. They hope Idaho will someday just stop voting with the GOP.
It’s the Democrat’s own version of “Operation Chaos” but aimed at Idaho Republicans.
Gotta hand it to them, it is strategic. I just ask my Democrat friends to remember one thing: it didn’t work, Obama won.
(1) comment
Trent, your GOP leader, Moon, would just as soon eliminate elections so she and her followers could just choose who they want and tell the people it is done.
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