While some high-elevation areas in Idaho received snow in August this year — a fairly unusual occurrence — it’s not yet clear how much more the Gem State will be getting in the months ahead.

Currently, predictions indicate that Idaho has an equal chance of having a normal or slightly below normal snowfall this season, said Dan Valle, a lead forecaster with the National Weather Service forecast office in Pocatello. It also appears that temperatures could be warmer than usual.

But a lot could still change in the months ahead.

“There’s a lot of variability looking out this far,” Valle said. “The phenomenon we’re looking for hasn’t developed yet, but conditions are favorable.”

That condition is an El Niño, which is a warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, according to www.weather.gov.

There is currently an El Niño watch in affect, and a lot depends on whether or not it actually develops.

“There is a 50-55% chance of El Niño onset during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to 65-70% during winter 2018-19,” according to the Climate Prediction Center.

Valle says the warming of the sea surface temperature off the coast of South America controls the jet stream on the Pacific Ocean, which carries our storms. If an El Niño develops, the jet stream will stay farther south and whoever ends up in the jet stream will get a fair amount of snow and rain and whoever doesn’t, won’t receive as much precipitation.

“It’s a really good idea to stay on top of the forecast as we head into the winter,” Valle said. “We should have better information as we head into the winter months.”

In the meantime, The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which dubs itself as a longtime “trusted source for weather,” is making some predictions of its own. Officials there say Idaho is in for a mild but snowy winter.

“This winter, we expect to see above-normal temperatures almost everywhere in the United States, except in the Southwest, where we’re predicting a colder-than-normal season,” according to www.almanac.com. “It’s still going to be wintery, of course, but it won’t be an especially frigid year.”

The Old Farmer’s Almanac also expects above-normal levels of precipitation for most of the U.S., with the exception of the Southeast, southern California, the nation’s midsection and portions of Alaska and Hawaii, which could all see below-normal precipitation.

Officials say they are also expecting more rain and less snow.

“As for snow, we expect to see below-normal levels of snowfall in areas that normally get snow, with the interior West and a small part of the nation’s midsection being the snowier-than-normal exceptions,” according to www.almanac.com.