You may not have to go to a foreign website to place a bet on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the presidential election Nov. 5. A Biden-appointed federal judge ruled this month such betting is legal in the US.

Right now Trump has a narrow lead in the odds. If he wins that will be a terrible disappointment to Democrats and a surprise even to many Republicans. After all, Trump’s been telling them for 4 years that our election system is rigged against him.

If that’s the case, how could he possibly win? I’ll tell you how.

First, Trump’s a man. American men don’t appear any more ready to vote for a woman president than they were when Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in 2016.

Second, Trump’s got no moral compass to keep him even remotely honest. His behavior and words toward women and minorities have been outrageous. Skeptics can answer this question. How can any father who has a daughter vote for Trump? Enough said.

Third, the former president also has some very rich allies. Most of Wall Street is on his side because he won’t make them pay their fair share of taxes like Harris would. Some of those mega-rich Americans applauding Trump also hold the controlling interest in most of the corporate media in America.

Fourth, he has been a very skilled showman. He has known how to get the attention that has kept his name in the news.

Of course, he’s only human. Sometimes the attention is less than flattering. No matter. His wealthy media allies keep much of that out of the public eye.

Fifth, lies work. If you doubt that, do an internet search on the phrase, “the big lie in America today.” The corporate media, btw, does a magnificent job of magnifying the lies Trump and his cronies tell.

While Trump will tell anyone anything if it helps him win, his big lie has been that he beat Joe Biden in 2020. “The election was stolen from me,” line recalls Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf, the book the Nazi dictator wrote in prison in 1925.

If you tell a tale tall enough, preposterous enough, then most people will believe it’s true. That’s because they’re basically honest and would never tell such a fantastic lie, and then stick to it, besides.

Finally, and most important, it’s the economy.

It does not matter that the American economy is the strongest on earth and is the envy of every other country. What matters is that the economy works best for the few at the top, and doesn’t work at all for many of the working poor and lower middle-income earners who have been stuck for the last 40 years with effectively no wage growth and rising living costs.

Trump’s cronies propose less overtime pay for longer working hours, more dangerous workplaces and lower minimum wages. Harris has made specific proposals for helping those folks who will probably vote against her. You’ve read the plans, right? They’re all in a little 82 page pamphlet, “A New Way Forward.”

Harris gets that many Americans are hurting financially. She genuinely wants to help them. It’s hard to study her proposals, though, when you work multiple low-wage, no-benefit jobs, can’t afford child care, and worry you don’t have enough money for gas to get to the healthy food grocery conveniently located near the homes of the folks who are much better off.

Ironic, isn’t it? The very people who have the most to lose from a Trump presidency are those likely to elect him.

Harris, of course, will win the popular vote. So what?

Because of our arcane Electoral College system, Trump and Harris and their running mates are campaigning almost nowhere except in Arizona and Nevada, in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and in Georgia and North Carolina. Voters’ intentions in all the other states are taken for granted.

That’s not how it should be. That’s just how it is.

Harris is not out of the running. Pollsters have been wrong before. However, income inequality is baked-into this election and it’s a big headwind for Harris.

Will Republicans cross over in large numbers to vote for Harris? Polls don’t show that. Lots of Republicans repudiating Trump is a possibility, not a probability.

Btw, if you bet on the outcome Nov. 5, please remember I’ve offered an opinion, not betting advice.