Key matchup

Idaho State quarterback Russel Hill vs. Northern Colorado's secondary

The Bears rank first in the Big Sky in passing defense (193.8 yards allowed per game) and second in interceptions (seven).

In a classic strength-on-strength matchup, their defensive backs will have to match wits against Hill and Idaho State's wide receivers. The Bengals have had much more success this season moving the ball through the air than they have on the ground.

Hill will have to be careful with the football, though. The Bears picked off three passes in a loss to Portland State last week. That's the same number of interceptions Hill threw in Idaho State's most recent loss at Sacramento State.

System Battle

When the Bengals pass

Northern Colorado held Eastern Washington quarterback Matt Nichols to 146 passing yards in a 16-0 loss earlier this season. The Bears' secondary appears to be for real.

Advantage - Northern Colorado

When the Bengals run

Northern Colorado owns the second-worst run defense in the Big Sky. Idaho State's senior running back Clint Knickrehm is fresh off a career-high 77-yard rushing day last week against Sacramento State.

Advantage - Idaho State

When the Bears pass

Chances are, Northern Colorado won't be able to do much damage in the air, either. Bears quarterback Bryan Waggener is averaging 185.7 passing yards a game. Four different Bengals have combined for five interceptions this season.

Advantage - Idaho State

When the Bears run

Northern Colorado's running game has slowed down lately, but that's largely because its self-proclaimed "Thunder and Lightning" backfield of Andre Harris and John Burnley has struggled with injuries. The two are healthy at the same time once more, just in time to face the worst run defense in the Big Sky.

Advantage - Northern Colorado

Special teams

Idaho State's kicking numbers are better than Northern Colorado's, but its return and return coverage numbers are worse.

Advantage - Tie

Coaching

Buoyed by the two-year contract extension he received Thursday, Idaho State coach John Zamberlin will have less weighing on his mind in the lead-up to the game.

Advantage - Idaho State

In the end

Numbers don't always tell the whole story, but a glance at the teams' results so far this season suggest Northern Colorado is closer to a win than Idaho State. In the past two weeks, the Bears have had drives to win a game against Portland State and send another at Northern Arizona into overtime. The latter drive stalled at the Lumberjacks' 2-yard line. Idaho State's narrowest loss, on the other hand, has been by 11 points against Central Washington.

Northern Colorado 22, Idaho State 20

Around the Big Sky

No. 21 Eastern Washington (4-2, 2-1) at No. 3 Montana (5-0, 2-0)

1:05 p.m. at Washington-Grizzly Stadium in Missoula, Mont.

Series: Montana leads 24-10-1.

Prediction: Montana 36, Eastern Washington 27

South Dakota (3-3) at Montana State (3-2)

1:05 p.m. at Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman, Mont.

Series: Montana State leads 1-0.

Prediction: Montana State 27, South Dakota 20

Northern Arizona (3-2. 2-1) at Portland State (2-4, 1-3)

2:05 p.m. at PGE Park in Portland, Ore.

Series: Northern Arizona leads 12-4

Prediction: Northern Arizona 33, Portland State 23

Sacramento State (2-3, 1-2) at No. 15 Weber State (3-3, 1-3)

1:05 p.m. at Stewart Stadium in Ogden, Utah.

Series: Weber State leads 9-4.

Prediction: Weber State 41, Sacramento State 20