Idaho economists and business development officials are confident that the state’s economy can successfully rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Officials spoke on June 10 during a virtual discussion over the teleconferencing program Zoom.

On a scale of one to 10 eight experts ranked Idaho’s economic outlook anywhere from six to eight. 

But they noted the state's economic performance is dependent on businesses managing to stay open along the way and what happens with the pandemic.

“Once we get past COVID then I think things begin to improve,” said teleconference participant Dan Cravens, who directs the Bengal Solutions program at Idaho State University.

He ranks the state’s outlook as a seven or eight. His estimate was among the most optimistic of the eight teleconference participants.

Neil Tocher, department chair of management and marketing at ISU, is hopeful about the state’s outlook, despite the state's job losses. 

But a second wave of COVID-19 would impact that.

Karl Geisler, assistant professor of economics at ISU, put the national outlook at four and Idaho’s outlook at six.

Teresa McKnight, CEO of Regional Economic Development for Eastern Idaho, estimated an eight for Idaho.

But she and other teleconference participants ranked the outlook for the nation as a whole considerably lower.

McKnight estimated the national economic outlook overall at three. Other estimates of the national outlook from the participants were similarly low.

Iris Buder, who teaches economics at ISU, noted that health care is about 18% of the country’s gross domestic product.

And the doctor and dentist offices and related services are slowly reopening. 

But if people delay going to the doctor due to the pandemic that could affect their health later and be costly.

But Tocher said a lot of elements are in Idaho’s favor. 

“I think we’ve all said Idaho is on a lot better footing then the economy on the coasts,” Tocher said.

Plus, John Regetz, CEO of Bannock Development Corporation, says tariffs already have increased the likelihood of reshoring, or returning production of goods back to the U.S.

“Other industries are remaining strong,” Regetz said. “I think it bodes well for us.”

Tocher says Idaho gets to highlight its advantages and make any disadvantages a lot less prevalent.

“It’s a great time right now to live in Idaho,” Tocher said.

Geisler notes that Idaho took a hit to the economy — losing about 37,000 jobs. But other states took bigger hits.

“We’re in a much better place,” Geisler said. “It’s definitely not a great place, but a much better place than a lot of states are right now.”

Meanwhile, Ann Swanson, regional director of the Idaho Small Business Development Center in Pocatello, says state businesses have done well in accessing federal and state grant money.

Disaster loan grants and other aid have also helped a lot of state businesses.

But Tocher says the virus has limited businesses that used to hold large events and live off that for a stretch. Now the big events aren’t really a good option.

He says it’s about how to be profitable every day with a small-scale operation and not depend on the large events.

“It’s really shown the strength of small businesses,” he said. “We’ve flattened the curve and transitioned to a situation where we manage COVID."

Beth Ineck, economic development director for the city of Nampa, says as the summer goes on they’ll find out how many businesses can continue to stay open.

In Nampa there have been businesses that struggled.

"But most of them have been able to open,” she said.

Geisler said consumer confidence will be key going forward.

“That’s really going to be the linchpin in how fast we recover overall,” he said. “We’re going to lag if we don’t have enough spending.”

Regetz said ATCO in Pocatello recently decided to close due to a loss of demand due to COVID-19. But that’s not the whole story.

“The good news is that talent is available for housing,” he said.

And the housing is needed.

“The FBI continues to hire in steady streams and we need that housing to continue to support them,” he said.

Tom Kealey, director of the Idaho Department of Commerce, said he’s hopeful for the future.

“Once it feels safe to travel people will,” he said.

And that will boost tourism in Idaho.

Meanwhile, those looking for business opportunities or jobs might try the Idaho National Laboratory, according to Amy Lientz of INL.

 She said INL highly depends on local businesses and small businesses.

And the lab is working at getting the word out about how to do business with it. 

More information can be found at procurement.inl.gov.

Plus, the site is hiring.

“Look at our career site and you’ll see opportunities,” she said.