Panhandle, Southwest Buoy Idaho Jobs Through 2016

The financial and housing crises that threw the national economy into recession are reining in the prospects across most of Idaho for job growth through 2016.

The Idaho Department of Labor's long-term job projections anticipate growth rates between 2006 and 2016 to fall below those forecast just two years ago in every region but north central Idaho.

Slightly stronger growth rates in 2006 and 2007 are being countered this year by flat or declining regional job figures, and the anticipated slow recovery from the current economic trough will push most of the forecast growth beyond 2009.

The Panhandle and the urbanized area around Boise will see the highest growth at annualized rates of 2.1 percent. That compares to a statewide job growth rate of 1.9 percent a year over the 10-year period but is down from the earlier forecasts of 2.3 percent for northern Idaho and 2.2 percent for the Boise metropolitan area.

In north central Idaho, the new projections anticipate growth at 1.3 percent a year compared to just 1 percent annually in the earlier forecast. While the area's job outlook has improved from the earlier projection, it remains anemic for the region that benefited the least from Idaho's expansion following the 2001 national recession. Anchored by Lewiston and Moscow north central Idaho has suffered the slowest job growth of any region in Idaho during the last seven. While jobs were expanding at a 2.7 percent annual clip statewide following the national recession, opportunities in north central Idaho were increasing at an annual rate of just 0.8 percent.

South central Idaho, which centers on Twin Falls and has been one of the most stable areas of the state averaging over 2 percent annual growth since the national recession, is expected to see annualized job growth of 1.6 percent while southeastern and eastern Idaho will essentially match the statewide growth rate. For the Idaho Falls area, that is a marked reduction in the outlook from the long-term projection for 2.2 percent annual growth two years ago.

As it was statewide, health care is the top growth industry for half the regions as baby boomers move into retirement and Idaho continues to attract retirees from elsewhere in the nation. One of every five new jobs in north central and southwestern Idaho will be in health care and one of every four in eastern Idaho.

Health care is second behind retail in northern Idaho, a reflection of that region's status as a tourism center and its strong population growth. It is also second behind the ever expanding dairy industry in south central Idaho, and it ranked third behind administrative services and construction in southeastern Idaho.

Job Projections 2006-2016

State-wide

Northern

North Central

South-western

South Central

South-eastern

Eastern

New Job Total

143,144

20,697

6,579

74,401

14,994

13,818

18,050

Total Jobs 2016

853,650

111,108

55,971

393,660

103,414

82,442

108,123

Annual Percentage Growth

1.9%

2.1%

1.3%

2.1%

1.6%

1.9%

1.8%

Source: Communications and Research Division, Idaho Department of Labor