Ever since the Korean War, the various Kims, self-styled “great leaders,” of North Korea (Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un) have harangued, threatened, and ranted against the United States and South Korea, while maintaining a dismal totalitarian grip over their people.

Almost all of us would like to see their mouths permanently shut and the North Korean people freed.

An international effort tried to keep North Korea from building a nuclear weapon. Nonetheless, in 2006 it exploded underground a tiny (0.7 kiloton) atomic bomb. The first atomic bomb ever dropped was on Hiroshima back in 1945. Its yield was 15 kilotons. That is equivalent to exploding 15,000 tons of TNT. North Korea has successfully tested four more, with the last in 2016 yielding 20-30 kilotons.

The Hiroshima blast and fire killed or wounded about 150,000 people.

They have not tested one of the much more powerful hydrogen bombs (thermonuclear weapons), although they claimed they did. Their propaganda claimed their “H-bomb” was so powerful that it could “wipe out the whole territory of the US all at once.” That was an absurd claim. The actual test was more likely just 6 kilotons.

Today North Korea has a number of nasty relatively little devices (10?), and probably enriched uranium and plutonium sufficient to build an equal number more. However, they have had no way to deliver them because they are too big.

Now reports say they have fashioned one into a warhead that will fit atop their missiles. Moreover, their frequent missile tests might show they are close to having a rocket powerful and large enough (an ICBM) to cross the Pacific and hit our West Coast.

This revelation came last Wednesday. It followed by an impromptu statement by President Trump that caused a drop in the stock market. Trump said,” North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States,” or “They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”

Statements alone warning of American intent to use our nuclear capability by past Presidents during the Cold War with the Soviet Union might have been sufficient to stop aggression, but they were not as harsh as Trump’s. He said there would be “fire and fury like the world has never seen,” if they made more threats. He is saying it was tough language Jong-un can understand, but they immediately made still another threat, and it was more specific than in past. North Korea said they would launch four of their intermediate range missiles to hit in the ocean around Guam … so much for deterring more threats.

The American base at Guam is the most distant North Korea can reach with its IRBM’s (intermediate range ballistic missiles). Presumably these missiles would have conventional, non-nuclear warheads.

It would be highly irrational for Kim Jong-Un to think he could fight a nuclear war with the United States which has nuclear weapons a thousand times more powerful than his Hiroshima-sized (15-30 kiloton) weapons. In addition, the United States has 1,700 nuclear weapons ready to use.

There is a problem with just nuking North Korea.

Yes, we could turn it to glass, but we would not want to harm China or South Korea on its borders. There is also Japan, across the ocean just a hundred miles to the east. Nuking North Korea without harming them would be very hard to do.

North Korea maintains what amounts to a dead man’s switch for deterrence pointed at the nearby capital city metropolis of Seoul, South Korea. The greater Seoul area has a staggering population of 50-million! For more than a half century, North Korea has been digging into the hills just north of the 38th parallel demilitarized zone. There they emplaced a vast force of artillery and rockets aimed at Seoul.

If North Korea was attacked by the United States or South Korea, they would use these artillery immediately to attack the South Korean population of Seoul, or so it is thought. A commissioned study predicted about would be 70,000 killed in Seoul the first day. However, many of the weapons are primitive, with unreliable shells, and can’t even reach Seoul. That is certainly not true of others, however.

Counterfire could possibly take out the most effective North Korean pieces without a long delay. Some say there would not even be a second day for these artilleries. I find that doubtful. There might also be some shells loaded with nerve gas or biological agents hidden in these North Korean border hills.

Is Kim rational? If so, what does he want? Some say he wants to be invited to join the international community. We should talk with him directly as an equal. Does that mean President Trump and Jong-un should meet? Some say the weapons are to deter an attack from South Korea or the United States. We seem to assume that it will be the United States that takes out Jong-un, but South Korea will pay the highest price. Perhaps we should ask them first?

If, in the near future, an ICBM shows up on our radars heading this way from North Korea, we shouldn’t launch an immediate nuclear counterattack. The worst outcome is not likely because the weapon might not survive reentry intact, the warhead’s trigger might fail, the missile might not even have a nuclear warhead, and it will probably be inaccurate – hit in the desert. There is and should be time to think about the response.

What about in ten years when perhaps fifty ICBM’s could be on their way?

We are talking about nuclear strategy. I wonder if our President knows that there are options for actions? I hope he is getting a crash course. During the campaign, he knew almost nothing about American nuclear policy. He didn’t even know what our nuclear triad is. It is the three methods used by our military to deliver nuclear weapons on enemy targets – land based missiles, submarine launched missiles, and traditional aircraft carrying nuclear bombs.

So far, his actions do not inspire my confidence. He tweeted “My first order as President was to renovate and modernize our nuclear arsenal. It is now far stronger and more powerful than ever before.” In fact, U.S. nuclear capability and especially readiness has been declining ever since the Cold War ended in 1992. All Trump did was order a review. There is no change on the ground, in the air or in the oceans.

Renovation and modernization is a huge and expensive task. President Obama saw the need to do this and he launched a plan that would take 30 years to complete at a cost over a trillion dollars. Trump and the Congress might continue this, but there has been no improvement in American nuclear posture or ability since 2016.

We put a lot of trust in the office of President when we gave it the unilateral power to detonate nuclear weapons in anger. We believed that no other person but the President could combine the knowledge and tempered judgement in a position of power to order action.

Knowledge and tempered judgement certainly does not describe Donald J. Trump with his quick decisions he says are based on his “gut feelings.”

This is scary stuff!

Dr. Ralph Maughan of Pocatello is professor emeritus of political science at Idaho State University He retired after teaching there for 36 years, specializing in voting, public opinion and natural resource politics.He has written three outdoor guides, including “Hiking Idaho” with Jackie JohnsonMaughan.He was a founder of the Greater Yellowstone Coalition.