An approaching cold front will bring lower temperatures to the region over the next several days but will not provide much of a reprieve from poor, smoky air quality, says the National Weather Service.
John Keyes, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Pocatello, says almost all of the smoke resulting in a poor air quality in Southeast, East and Central Idaho is coming from large wildfires both southwest and northwest of the Gem State, including those burning in Oregon, California, Washington, Northern Idaho, Western Montana and even Southern Canada.
And while approaching cold fronts will help push some smoke out of the region, it will simultaneously bring in smoke from other regions, Keyes said.
“When we get thick pockets of smoke in this region it’s coming from those two areas southwest and northwest of us,” Keyes said. “This has been a pretty constant issue all summer long. We do have a storm coming in that will try to push the smoke out of here, but the wind will switch directions again eventually. Instead of coming from the south and west, smoke will come from the north and west. What will happen is that with the low pressure taking its time getting in here, we will have some dense smoke here until Wednesday night and into Thursday. We will not be completely clear from the smoke, but it will at least thin it out. The question remains, though, how much smoke will we get from the fires to the North and to the West of us. It may not be as bad as it is now, but there will be smoke coming in from those areas on Friday and Saturday.”
The National Weather Service on Tuesday issued air quality alerts to indicate unhealthy conditions for sensitive groups in Southeast Idaho including the counties of Bannock, Bear Lake, Bingham, Caribou, Franklin, Oneida, and Power — as well as the East Idaho counties of Bonneville, Butte, Clark, Custer, Fremont, Jefferson, Madison, and Teton.
“Those individuals who are sensitive to increased particulate or smoke levels are encouraged to limit prolonged or strenuous outdoor activity,” the National Weather Service says. “An increase in symptoms of asthma and other respiratory ailments are likely.”
While low pressure systems will help to move the smoke out this region, changing wind flows coupled with large, active fires will ensure some smoke remains until precipitation begins to knock down the large wildfires, Keyes said.
“Unfortunately, we go back to South and West flow on Saturday and into Sunday, so the smoke from California and Oregon will return,” Keyes said. “That may return us briefly to a period of more dense smoke that we have been seeing over the last few days. It will stay smoky in East Idaho, but will fluctuate based on the direction of flow and how much these fires are producing over the next several days. I would expect to see some improvement, but we shouldn’t expect a period of no smoke with blue skies and no tinge of brown. And if those conditions do appear, it won’t last very long.”
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, nine new large fires were reported on Monday including four in Montana, three in Washington and one each in both California and Idaho. Nationally, more than 2.2 million acres have burned in 104 large fires and complexes in 12 states. The NIFC says that because of the elevated to critical fire weather conditions, almost every ongoing large fire was active across the North Ops, Northwest and Northern Rockies interagency fire regions, with many of the fires exhibiting rapid and significant growth. New large fires emerged in north-central/eastern Montana and eastern Washington as well. The Dixie Fire in Northern California had seven distinct columns at one point with fire clouds developing on all of them. The fires in northern California, and some in Washington and Montana, remained active Monday night and into Tuesday.
“With many of these bigger fires, they are still burning and will be for quite a while,” Keyes said. “Much of the fires that are producing this big smoke will continue until we get a lot of rain, but even then, some of these fires could be burning for weeks and into the fall until it starts to become really wet. And with some fires in the mountains, it may take some snow in order for them to get knocked down.”
Keyes did note that Idaho, specifically Southeast Idaho, is not unique or special when it comes to encountering wildfire smoke from other regions. Smoke from large wildfires to the northwest and southwest will eventually trickle into other areas, but Idaho sees a brunt of the heavy smoke because it is downstream of the fires from both regions.
“No, Idaho is not special when it comes to dealing with wildfire smoke; we just happen to be directly downstream of these areas with large fires and heavy smoke,” he said. “Eventually, other parts of the country see some of these issues. Over the next few days parts of the Northern U.S. and south-central Canada and possibly the plains states will start to see some of the smoke from these fires. It may not be as thick, but it will get hazy over there.”
Higher or lower temperatures in and of themselves don’t necessarily help with poor air quality, but high winds with the incoming low pressure will bring a much-anticipated drop in the mercury levels for Southeast and East Idaho.
“Later Tuesday night, Wednesday and Thursday with the low pressure storm it does look like some of us will get some showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the area around the Central Mountains east along the Montana border and south through the Eastern Highlands,” Keyes said. “Temperatures in East Idaho are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees cooler on Wednesday.”
“We are expecting highs in the lower elevations of East Idaho and temperatures should hover around 65 to 70 degrees,” Keyes said. “We are sitting at almost 90 degrees in East Idaho on Tuesday afternoon. And if you’re heading up to the mountains it will be in the 40s or 50s. For Thursday, it will be about two or three degrees higher than Wednesday’s temperatures. Friday is warmer but we have another storm coming in on Saturday and Sunday. At the moment, dealing with constant temps above 90 all of the time, will not be something we should expect to encounter until early next week.”