IDAHO STATE'S KEYS TO VICTORY
1. Stop the run
Montana State's offense thrives on running the ball. The Bobcats have gained 1,304 of their 2,378 offensive yards via the run (54.8 percent), and 18 of 23 touchdowns have come on the ground.
Quarterback Troy Andersen leads the team in rushing with 778 yards on 99 carries (7.9 yards per rush), and has two more runs than attempted passes this season.
The Bobcats have averaged 238 yards rushing and 3.3 rushing scores in four wins this season, opposed to 117.3 yards and 1.7 rushing touchdowns in three losses.
2. Make third-down stops
Montana State ranks near the bottom of the Big Sky Conference in time of possession and third-down offense, which ISU's defense needs to take advantage of to get off the field and give control to ISU's offense.
ISU's defense has ended drives in three plays 32 times this season, but has also stayed on the field for 11 series of 10 plays or more. Opponents convert third downs at 40.7 percent (fifth-worst in the Big Sky), extending many possessions.
3. Capitalize in the red zone
Idaho State's offense has been in the red zone 40 times this season — more than any other Big Sky team — but has failed to score on 20 percent of those trips.
Montana State ranks last in the Big Sky in red-zone defense, allowing opponents to score on 28 of 30 trips this season. The Bobcats also cash in on their offensive red-zone trips at a 94.7 percent clip (18 of 19), tops in the conference.
If ISU can execute inside the 20-yard line and build an early lead, game script may force MSU out of its run-heavy comfort zone.
PLAYERS TO WATCH: Idaho State
QB Tanner Gueller
Gueller's usage has hardly varied this season, no matter the game flow.
What has fluctuated are Gueller's yardage and rushing totals.
Gueller attempted a season-high 40 passes last weekend at Liberty, but has landed between 23 and 32 attempts in every other game this season and attempted either 30, 31 or 32 passes in four consecutive games earlier this season.
Even in his eight-touchdown effort against Idaho, Gueller had 30 pass attempts. A number close to his season average of 31 pass attempts per game can be expected this week.
While Gueller has thrown for at least 319 yards and two touchdowns each of the last two weeks, those games yielded just 9 yards rushing on 25 carries combined.
The three games prior, Gueller averaged 72.7 yards rushing per game on 6.4 yards per carry. Gueller's ability to pull the ball down and run helped keep defenses guessing with an added offensive dimension in the run-pass option scheme. Montana State ties for fifth in the Big Sky with 15 sacks, and the team's 46 tackles for loss and per-game average of 6.6 TFLs both rank in the top 50 in the FCS – meaning the pressure up front could result in more QB carries for Gueller.
“You can tell this guy owns the offense,” MSU Jeff Choate said of Gueller. “He makes a lot of decisions for them at the line of scrimmage. When he sees a matchup that's advantageous for them, he takes advantage of them.”
WR Michael Dean
Dean has gone over 100 yards receiving in three of his last five games, including a career-high 210 yards against Liberty. Dean complements fellow wideout Mitch Gueller in ISU's high-caliber passing attack and has hauled in all seven of his touchdowns the last three weeks.
ISU coach Rob Phenicie said Montana State's defense limits big plays, which may play more to Dean's 18.3 yards per reception than Gueller's 22.1.
S Christian McFarland
McFarland has been one of ISU's key playmakers on defense and helps shore up the back end of ISU's secondary.
McFarland is tied for third on the team with 49 tackles, adding 2.0 tackles for loss, one interception, four pass breakups, one forced fumble and two fumble recoveries to his statistical repertoire this season. McFarland also has a team-high 32 solo stops and may get a few one-on-one matchups with mobile MSU quarterback Troy Andersen.
PLAYERS TO WATCH: Montana State
QB Troy Andersen
Montana State's quarterback is unique.
At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds and a former All-USA Montana first-team safety in high school, Andersen is a heavy load. The sophomore also started games at linebacker and running back for the Bobcats last season and is one of the best ball carriers in the Big Sky Conference.
Andersen ranks fourth in the league with 111.1 yards rushing per game, and has matched ISU running back James Madison with a league-high 10 rushing touchdowns this season. Andersen's 7.86 yards per carry also rank fourth among qualified players in the FCS.
Though he's had plenty of running success, Andersen is not as efficient throwing the ball. His 488 yards passing work out to 69.7 per game, with one touchdown against five interceptions.
Andersen is not in the Big Sky's top 10 in passing efficiency.
DE Bryce Sterk
Sterk is a menace for offensive linemen, leading the Big Sky in sacks (5.5) and tackles for loss (11) this season.
The 6-foot-5, 250-pound transfer from the University of Washington made eight solo tackles and 4.0 tackles for loss in his MSU debut against Western Illinois, and has been a steady presence for Montana State's defense ever since.
“They do a good job of getting him free,” ISU coach Rob Phenicie said. “He's physically something that you don't see in this conference too often.”
K Tristan Bailey
Bailey has connected on 10 of 11 field goals this season, good for 90.9 percent and a tie for third in the FCS among kickers with at least 10 attempts this season.
The former University of Wyoming kicker is 1 for 1 on 50-yard tries and hasn't missed inside 40 yards this season. His fourth-quarter field goals in wins against Western Illinois and Idaho were the difference on the scoreboard.