positive trend

The United States’ population is expected to increase by 78 million people to 404 million, according to Census projections.

While the Census projections are for national population growth, ProximityOne, a private developer of geodemographic-economic data and analytical tools, has released county-level projections that show dramatic population gains in Idaho over the same time period.

Bonneville County is projected to see its population grow 81 percent to 189,702 by 2060, according to ProximityOne’s numbers. But both Madison and Teton counties are projected to see even bigger increases in the number of residents.

ProximityOne projects Teton as one of the state’s fastest growing counties between now and 2060, estimating the county will increase 120 percent to a population of 22,327. Madison, meanwhile, is projected to reach 81,283 residents, a 116 percent increase.

The population in Ada County, the state’s most populous, is projected to increase 104 percent to 805,117.

But ProximityOne isn’t projecting growth across all the state’s counties. Some, such as Bannock County, will see much more modest growth, increasing 23 percent to 102,101 residents by 2060, according to the company’s projections, while others, including Bingham, Butte and Custer counties, are projected to see their populations decline.

Bingham County’s long stagnant population is projected to stay that way, losing less than 1 percent of its residents by 2060, while Butte and Custer counties are projected to see declines of 55 percent and 47 percent respectively.

Demographic changes will accompany the nation’s population changes.

“By 2060, the U.S. is projected to grow by 78 million people, from about 326 million today to 404 million,” ProximityOne reported. “As the population ages, the ratio of older adults to working-age adults, the old-age dependency ratio, is projected to rise. By 2020, there will be about three-and-a-half working-age adults for every retirement-age person. By 2060, that ratio will fall to just two-and-a-half working-age adults for every retirement-age person. The median age of the U.S. population is expected to grow from age 38 today to age 43 by 2060.”

ProximityOne charges clients to view its complete data sets and neither it nor the Census Bureau had a state-level population projection available as of Tuesday.

ProximityOne’s projections can be viewed at http://proximityone.com/demographics2060.htm.