Department of Labor releases job growth forecasts

    Health care, education, information and professional, technical and scientific services are the industries where the bulk of job growth will occur in Idaho over the next eight years.

    Construction, real estate and mining are some of the sectors forecast to not do so well.

    Those forecasts are based on short- and long-term job and industry projections released Tuesday by the Idaho Department of Labor.

    The projections include a top 100 jobs list both for the short-term and long-term.

    Based on the projections, health care is an area that will see a lot of growth, and the engineering profession still looks strong, says Dan Cravens, an IDL regional economist.

    “Those are the really big winners on the hot jobs list right now,” he says

    The short-term job projections are geared more toward people already in the work force or about to enter. The long-term forecasts are geared toward those still in school, as well as those thinking of changing careers, and include general educational requirements.

    “The long-term forecasts target people in school so they can plan and make the proper educational and training choices for their future careers,” Cravens says. 

    IDL spokesman Bob Fick thinks the highlight of the projections is that they show Idaho’s job growth through 2018 is forecast to outpace the national rate.

    Although employment growth in Idaho through 2011 is forecast to be fractional at just a few thousand jobs, the data projects the state’s economy will add more than 110,000 jobs by the end of 2018. That 15.6 percent increase is above the 10.1 percent increase forecast nationally.

    The short-term projections for Idaho’s job growth aren’t anything to brag about, Fick says. “But long-term, that kind of growth should really ... put us in a solid economic position,” he adds. “That’s a good sign considering our job losses have been greater than the (national average) the last few years.”

    According to the IDL, the long-term projections ignore the ups and downs of the business cycle to identify the natural growth or contraction of industries and changes in their staffing patterns.

    The long-term projections show nursing, pharmacy, post-secondary education, natural resource managers and computer software system engineers will be among the fastest-growing and highest paying occupations.

    The short-term projections show business management, health care and professional, technical and scientific services will provide most of the small job increase expected through the end of 2011.

    Cravens says it’s an encouraging sign that the projections forecast a lot of growth in marketing, sales and public relations positions. “When you have more sales and marketing people, that’s a positive sign toward growth.”

    There is also a forecast uptick in positions such as purchasing managers that buy equipment for companies.

    “When I look at this data, it is actually fairly positive,” Cravens says.

    Based on the abundance of jobs, those which are growing the fastest, and jobs with the highest pay, the top 10 hottest jobs in Idaho through 2018 are expected to be, in order: registered nurses, farm and ranch managers, post-secondary teachers, pharmacists, computer software engineers, dental hygienists, accountants and auditors, computer software engineers, sales managers, and elementary school teachers.

    Other hot jobs: network systems and data communications analysts, management analysts, sales reps for wholesale and manufacturing and technical and scientific products, physicians, medical and health services managers, physical therapists, licensed practical nurses, training and development specialists.

    The areas that are not forecast to experience growth are real estate and construction-related businesses. Senior management and any jobs related to loaning people money are also not growing.

    The total number of jobs in the computer and electronic manufacturing industry is forecast to shrink by 2,036 through 2018. There are also forecast to be 1,360 fewer specialty trade contractor positions, and 777 fewer people are expected to be employed in the construction of buildings.

    There are forecast to be 584 fewer jobs in the wood product manufacturing industry and 547 less in forestry and logging. The printing and related support activities industry is expected to shed 356 jobs and federal employment is expected to shrink by 322 positions. The mining industry (except for oil and gas) is expected to shed 160 jobs.

    The top 100 hot jobs lists included in the projections include the required education or training level.

    Cravens says it’s worth noting that many of the hottest job prospects require a bachelor’s degree and often a graduate or professional degree.

    “What we’re trying to stress to people still in school is the importance of being educated so they can be competitive in the workforce,” he says. “People in the workforce are going to have to be more educated as time goes on.”

    The IDL will release regional job and industry projections this fall.

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